The world is facing a new economic storm, a serious warning has come from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF forecast is based on the decline of the global economy as a whole, mainly the United States (WE) and China. The pandemic, inflation, supply disruptions on the world market have contributed to this. The same market is threatened by new problems, already visible increase in energy prices, and the political crisis in Russia and Ukraine, where energy is becoming the main weapon. What is the fate of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in an uncertain global market?
Namely, tthe emergence of vsthe ovid-19 pandemic initiated the decline of the global economy, primarily due to the breakdown of relationships between people, supply chains, and interruption of production. And that’s not the end. On the stage of achieving political goals, everyone uses what they have. For sto me It is weapons and some use powerful weapons, energy, and energy sources. This can be a big problem for many countries, but also for BiH. The consequences of an interruption in the regular supply of energy, which is much more expensive, can be catastrophic.
“If the price of energy goes crazy, all these small countries will fall, all these companies based on large energy consumption will fall. Even today we have the problem of Sarajevo warming up and others that use gas. Be careful, the economy will lose its ability to produce in the long term,” noted Zeljko Ricka, a economics teacher.
The pandemic has ravaged the world, according to IMF data. As an additional 70 million people have fallen into extreme poverty, this will cause cumulative economic damage – nearly $14 billion by 2024. Current games of great powers, such as Russia, will not contribute to the situation improved, although there is enough Russian gas, but not for political reasons.
“I to believe these things are connected, they are very focused on Ukraine and whether or not there will be a war, and they don’t pay attention to these connections that are not seen right now between the crisis, this political, military–strategy and the crisis When it comes to the energetic sphere in the gaseous sphere”,Srecko Djukic, former Ambassador of Serbia to Belarus noted.
Although not significant, Russia and Ukraine are trading partners of BiH. The volume of trade with Russia last year amounted to 318 million marks. This amount with Ukraine is significantly lower and amounts to 42 million marks. All of this can affect BiH, even though we are a small country. Once again, citizens would feel the consequences of expensive energy that are also affected by current inflation.
Jthere are no macro-policy instruments that would remove the negative consequences, like economistI believe. The fear is justified, they say, of even greater economic damage, and the reaction of inactive competent institutions is inevitable.
“We should try to prepare, if possible according to the available budgets, in accordance with certain raw material reserve systems for possible deeper economic crises, which are again linked to infarction effects, to price increases”, underlineto admire Cavalica economic analyst.
Political problems deal a blow to the world economy and, in this chain, not even the The BiH market would be no exception, as the lack of exports and falling GDP only mean further impoverishment of an already rather poor country.