The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of 2021 is estimated at 8%, the central bank said in a statement on Monday.
Monthly indicators of economic activity, especially retail trade, industrial production and exports, point to historically high growth in the economy in the second quarter, the central bank noted.
Moreover, official July figures show that economic activity in the third quarter could be stronger than expected, making an upward revision in the annual GDP growth rate more certain.
In its spring projection, the central bank said it expects Bosnia’s GDP to grow 3.4% in 2021.
The negative risks are still linked to the uncertainty of the duration of the pandemic and the epidemiological situation, but the risks linked to the speed of vaccination are less pronounced than in the previous projection period.
The central bank expects to see stronger inflationary pressures by the end of the year, forecasting annual inflation of 1.2% in 2021.
Bosnia’s statistics office is expected to release its first estimate of GDP data for the second quarter on September 30.